As diesel passes one ninety and the war remains, talk of fuel rationing is key amongst final mile van drivers.
Derivatives expert, Callum Macpherson from Investec delivered the very latest in a fellows' special email this week, as we sat on the edge of our chairs for world news updates on the ceasefire.. Today Sunday 12 April 2026 he updates as Vance flies home.
The Iran/US talks failed to reach an agreement last night even after talks continued into the morning. Vance said that the US needed a commitment that Iran would “not seek a nuclear weapon, and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon.” There has so far been no renewal of the colourful threats of last week, of the consequences of failing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile Iran said that “no one had expectation of reaching agreement with US in one session” suggesting further talks might be in the offing. It is also positive that, excluding Israel/Lebanon, the ceasefire is holding. There has also been some movement in the Strait, including a very large crude carrier with Saudi and UAE crude bound for Malaysia. Movement is till very limited, but there are some signs of improvement.
So, while market optimism about the talks looks to have got ahead of itself last week, the situation does not seem hopeless and perhaps a date for further talks will be announced soon. In the meantime, the supply situation for consumers will get tighter supporting short-dated prices. The diesel fixing did fall into the end of last week, settling at 180 $/b on Friday (83.84 p/l excluding duty and VAT), but upward pressure could resume this week.
Energy markets will be looking for diplomacy to continue at pace. Inventories are not sufficient to cope with protracted discussions over many weeks, while an outright failure in the talks poses the risk of an escalation that leads to long term damage to energy supply infrastructure around the Persian Gulf.
During COVID our sector was recognised as critical infrastructure getting deliveries to door when the Govt restricted vehicle movements.
Branded vans were rarely confronted at roadside. The drivers most challenged operated plain vans. During COVID IOC generated a paper-based driver challenge code for all drivers to show to authorities if challenged.
Preparing for potential fuel rationing, IOC is preparing a similar, but more modern, electronic challenge code for bona-fide drivers to present at their fuel station if the worst scenario lands.
The IOC web page will be loaded with a challenge code portal, drivers will need to pre-register, detailing their registration number and a brand code for their courier company. Key to the challenge will be drivers proving they work for a brand with confidential access to the brand code, then matching their registration ready for challenge at pump.
The brand codes will be sent direct to senior fellows for distribution to operations. In real time the drivers will be sent a phone download with a QR code for fuel stations to scan, a verification will be near instant to authorise driver is a courier leaving peace of mind for the station attendant to compare the number plate in the code matches that on the van. Trials are under way, and the IOC IT team are adding the polish, senior fellows should await their brand code and get ready to distribute.
Fingers crossed the system will never be used, but if the worst happens IOC are driving towards sector of key infrastructure that is ready for the challenge.
