Evolving numbers in Express final mile delivery
Express logistics is made up of four streams, mail, Parcel, food and meal delivery. Five years on of data is building IOC a Reliable year on year data block that presents in a graph of continued growth for express logistics sector.
For 2025 population growth is up 205 thousand to 69.5 million
Door count is up, 39.6 million - 34 million homes, 5.7 million business doors.
There is a growing number of not at door delivery.
Not all e-retail is booked by a human
Growing automation and AI continues to remove human communication
Letter post is impacted by email (NHS an example)
Medical deliveries to door are growing strongly
Food to door has become commonplace and pure play has grown
Meal delivery has become fast food at door
The graph exploded but remains steady and upward. Express Logistics became a critical infrastructure of key workers overnight from COVID.
Shifting retail has seen High street shopping move to delivery to door, Covid was a major accelerator almost doubling final mile in a single year. The growth has continued.
Calculations of the IOC click to knock numbers are based on 357 days .excluding bank holidays, Christmas and Easter.
The number of deliveries to door is sitting around 4.5 per day.
IOC map the home delivery sector delivery to door numbers
25 billion deliveries 2019
40 billion deliveries 2020 Covid year
52 billion deliveries for 2021
57 Billion deliveries for 2022 (RM strike shifts)
60 Billion deliveries for 2023
63 Billion deliveries for 2024
65 Billion 2025
The delivery number for 2025 has increased from 2024
Four and a half a day to UK doors
Capacity and pinch points for delivery - we order a pizza at eleven pm, but don’t expect a parcel after daylight
IOC sub group chair, Chris Floyd, Royal Geographical Society, has led on the express delivery door count number project for IOC over the last five yers. IOC have defined Express as four streams: Mail, Parcel, Food and Meal to a combined click to knock representation graph.
The total number of pre-COVID deliveries 2019 was 25 billion items. Exceptional growth to 40 billion in the lockdown year 2020. 2025 is another year on year increase.
2025 numbers will be launched to fellows at the July 2026 Round table, heads of industry event for the final mile sector.
Chris Floyd will outline the steps to understand the number, a framework of implications of population growth, door count growth and demand management expectation of the customer.
A lens of the door shows growth- almost 40 million UK doors, population at 69.5 million. Letters through the door, 2 letters from Royal Mail, one parcel, and a pizza, that’s four a day! Building Peaks include Valentines day flowers. Mothers Day gifts, product launches of tech and the run to Black Friday that has evolved into a whole month for Christmas.
Chris explains further. ‘The number will build with population’
The funnel - Bulk to single pinch point - We collect in bulk, we deliver by single item.
The clock pinch point, we don’t deliver 24 hours a day. We order a pizza late but we don’t expect a parcel at eleven pm. We expect parcels in daylight.
The challenge answers
Where can we drop out of the daylight hours? Not at door deliveries. Lockers, parcel shops, 24 hour shops. Letter shift to email. Local delivery centres are becoming more widespread, we need lockers on new builds to be common place.
Can the express sector deliver it?
What is the capability of the home delivery sector?
From early lockdown work with the Cabinet Office, IOC have continued to map the express sector, expanding from express courier to final mile food, Amazon and final mile meal.
Review of shift of high street to home delivery. Supermarket to door, meal to table.
The big question
Capability of express sector to support shift/growth/expansion in online purchase
What dimensions are deliveries?
Express generally out volumes before overweight on vehicles.
Capacity is everything
Refreshment re-loading for vehicles under 5 cubic m
Can the express sector support the escalating click to knock delivery to door
Capacity of sector to deliver, worker shortage? Shifts outside nine to five regularity.
Sector ability to deliver quality and speed, service quality (SQ)
Is internal networking key to sustaining growth in sector
Will triangle sectors interchange service / goods delivered.
