As diesel passes one ninety and the war remains, talk of fuel rationing is key amongst final mile van drivers.

Derivatives expert, Callum Mcpherson from Investec,

Iran, US and Israel agreed a two-week ceasefire and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, late last night, to allow further negotiations. In a social media post confirming this outcome, Trump called the 10-point peace plan received from Iran a “workable basis on which to negotiate” and said that “almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to”. There has apparently been no immediate increase in traffic through the Strait, but there are a great many laden vessels that will be looking to leave soon, assuming that insurance and other details can be confirmed. As for resuming the usual flow of shipping into the Strait to collect more oil and gas, the bar is higher. The ceasefire is temporary and might not be extended, creating the risk for ship owners in having vessels trapped again. Consequently, the progress in direct talks, which will commence on Friday in Islamabad, will be watched very closely.

For now though, the risk of an escalation that could have lead to long term damage to oil infrastructure, is off the table, some much needed supplies of oil and gas will be able to set sail and markets have breathed a sigh of relief: Brent is down from 110 to 95 $/b, gasoil/diesel is down from 210 to 170 $/b, European gas and electricity prices are lower and stock markets are up.

During COVID our sector was recognised as critical infrastructure getting deliveries to door when the Govt restricted vehicle movements.

Branded vans were rarely confronted at roadside. The drivers most challenged operated plain vans. During COVID IOC generated a paper-based driver challenge code for all drivers to show to authorities if challenged.

Preparing for potential fuel rationing, IOC is preparing a similar, but more modern, electronic challenge code for bona-fide drivers to present at their fuel station if the worst scenario lands.

The IOC web page will be loaded with a challenge code portal, drivers will need to pre-register, detailing their registration number and a brand code for their courier company. Key to the challenge will be drivers proving they work for a brand with confidential access to the brand code, then matching their registration ready for challenge at pump.

The brand codes will be sent direct to senior fellows for distribution to operations. In real time the drivers will be sent a phone download with a QR code for fuel stations to scan, a verification will be near instant to authorise driver is a courier leaving peace of mind for the station attendant to compare the number plate in the code matches that on the van. Trials are under way, and the IOC IT team are adding the polish, senior fellows should await their brand code and get ready to distribute.

Fingers crossed the system will never be used, but if the worst happens IOC are driving towards sector of key infrastructure that is ready for the challenge.